Our History

May 2024

The Global Linkages Lab, set against the trade-policy and economic events that shaped its first years. Sit back — the timeline plays itself. Swipe or drag to take over.

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Papers

May 14, 2024: U.S. Section 301 Tariff Hikes on China. The Biden administration increases tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports, raising electric vehicle (EV) duties to 100% and semiconductor duties to 50% (White House 2024).
August 5, 2024: Global Market Selloff. An unwinding yen carry trade triggers a worldwide equity rout; Japan's Nikkei falls over 12% in a day and U.S. volatility spikes to pandemic-era levels.
September 1, 2024: Global Linkages Lab founded.
September 18, 2024: The Fed Begins Cutting. The Federal Reserve delivers its first rate cut since 2020 — an outsized 50 basis points — marking the turn of the post-inflation tightening cycle.
October 2, 2024: New NBER Working Paper.
October 29, 2024: EU Countervailing Duties on Chinese EVs. The European Union implements definitive tariffs up to 45.3% on electric vehicles imported from China, triggering retaliatory Chinese probes into European pork and dairy (European Commission 2024).
November 6, 2024: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in the Financial Times. In an FT interview, our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
December 2, 2024: New NBER Working Paper.
December 6, 2024: The EU–Mercosur Political Breakthrough. The European Union and the Mercosur bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) reach an improved political agreement for a broad economic partnership (European Commission 2024).
December 15, 2024: United Kingdom Enters the CPTPP. The United Kingdom's accession protocol enters into force, formally making the UK the first new member to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership since its creation (UK Department for Business and Trade 2024).
January 1, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in the Financial Times. In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
January 10, 2025: Cited in the Economic Report of the President. Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
January 27, 2025: DeepSeek Shock. A low-cost Chinese AI model release wipes roughly $1 trillion off U.S. technology stocks in a single day, with Nvidia posting the largest one-day value loss in market history.
February 1, 2025: U.S.-Canada Trade War Activation. The Trump administration levies a 25% blanket tariff on Canadian goods, prompting Ottawa to later retaliate with duties on billions in American exports (Department of Finance Canada 2025).
February 2, 2025: New NBER Working Paper. What are the drivers of 2021 Inflation?
February 3, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Brown University News. In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration's planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
February 4, 2025: globallinkageslab.org Launches. The lab's website goes live, presenting the team, research, and media coverage.
March 1, 2025: WTO Steel and Aluminum Dispute Influx. Canada, the European Union, and China mount a unified legal challenge, filing formal dispute complaints against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization (World Trade Organization 2025).
March 2, 2025: Forthcoming in RESTUD. Global Vaccinations: The least cost-highest return solution to economic contractions during the pandemic.
March 11, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Marketplace. The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration's on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
March 20, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Bloomberg TV. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's Bloomberg TV interview highlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
April 1, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Newsweek. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
April 1, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in TIME. On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
April 2, 2025: New NBER Working Paper. How disruptive is Trump's global trade war?
April 2, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in the Financial Times. How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan explains in an FT op-ed.
April 2, 2025: "Liberation Day" Blanket Tariffs. President Trump signs Executive Order 14257, enacting sweeping, emergency-power tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on imports from roughly 60 nations (Exec. Order No. 14257 2025).
April 9, 2025: Reciprocal Pause, China Escalation. Facing bond-market turmoil, the U.S. pauses most reciprocal tariffs for 90 days while singling out China for further escalation — an action affecting over $1 trillion of U.S. imports (TIRADE v1.0, 2026).
April 15, 2025: U.S. Tariffs on China Peak at 245%. Cumulative duties on Chinese goods reach up to 245% — the highest implemented rate recorded in the lab's TIRADE dataset, covering roughly $453 billion of imports (TIRADE v1.0, 2026).
May 16, 2025: Brown Economics PhD Conference. The lab hosts the Brown University Economics PhD Conference in Providence.
June 12, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
July 15, 2025: Section 301 Investigation Expansion. Following broad IEEPA friction, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) launches a targeted Section 301 trade investigation into Brazil and South American trade policies (Office of the United States Trade Representative 2025).
July 31, 2025: Modified Reciprocal Schedule Takes Effect. A revised executive order sets a 15% baseline for most trading partners, replacing the Liberation Day rates; TIRADE ties the action to some $2.5 trillion of U.S. imports (TIRADE v1.0, 2026).
August 22, 2025: The Lab in the News. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
September 2, 2025: The Lab in the News. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's interview at the 2025 Jackson Hole Conference focuses on the impact of tariffs on inflation. GLL's research shows that whether there is a one-time price jump versus persistent inflation depends on FED's response. She also mentions the importance of lack of retaliation.
September 3, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
September 13, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in The Guardian. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation rolls out at a slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation later, where unemployment can be observed before.
October 2, 2025: New NBER Working Paper.
October 10, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's PS column this month argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
October 13, 2025: Nobel Prize Comes to Brown Economics. Congratulations to Brown University Professor Emeritus **Peter Howitt** on receiving the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics, alongside his co-author Philippe Aghion and economic historian Joel Mokyr, for contributions to the field of economic growth.
October 27, 2025: The 5th RCEP Summit & Supply Chain Pact. Leaders of the world's largest trade bloc (China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and ASEAN) meet for the 5th RCEP Summit in Kuala Lumpur, signing a unified statement to insulate regional supply chains (Association of Southeast Asian Nations 2025).
Late 2025: The Canada–China EV and Canola Truce. In a direct pivot away from Western trade barriers, Canada and China broker a limited bilateral agreement to lower reciprocal tariffs on Canadian canola oil and Chinese EV parts (Global Affairs Canada 2025).
November 14, 2025: Deal-Partner Tariff Regime Consolidates. Following a wave of framework agreements, the U.S. formalizes 15% tariff treatment for trade-deal partners including Japan, Korea, and the EU, covering about $668 billion of imports (TIRADE v1.0, 2026).
November 18, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Newsweek. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's interview with Newsweek on how to think the macroeconomy in a disaggregated manner not only as poor and rich households but also small and large firms and related risks from such K-Shaped economy.
November 19, 2025: 350% Tariff Threat on India and Pakistan. In remarks at the U.S.–Saudi Investment Forum, President Trump threatens duties of up to 350% — the largest rate recorded anywhere in the TIRADE dataset (TIRADE v1.0, 2026).
December 15, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's interview with PS Quarterly featured in the Watson School. She discusses how the combination of U.S. tariffs and monetary policy risks fueling stagflation and financial instability.
December 26, 2025: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan joins several social scientists for 2026 predictions of the Project Syndicate. She argues that, in the year ahead and beyond, globalization is set to become more fragmented, more complex, and more unequal. Supply chains will grow longer and riskier, while the technological arms race between the US and China could destabilize the global economic system. Paradoxically, dollar dominance may coexist with a weakening dollar. This shift is unfolding in an increasingly zero-sum geopolitical environment shaped by global and regional rivalries. Social welfare is set to decline worldwide, even as an AI-driven productivity surge benefits a narrow set of firms, sectors, and countries. Multilateral institutions will be more necessary than ever, but politics and policymaking will continue to drift away from cooperative economic frameworks.
January 2, 2026: Published in AEA P&P 2026. Why is the dollar weaker under the Trump administration?
January 16, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan joins Anne Krueger, Mohamed El-Erian, and Gabriel Chodorow-Reich on the importance of FED independence for domestic and global macro and financial stability.
January 17, 2026: EU-Mercosur Agreement Officially Signed. Following a brief pause to address agricultural pushback from European domestic farming lobbies, the EU and Mercosur leaders gather in Asunción, Paraguay, to formally sign the finalized EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement (European Commission 2026).
January 26, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan argues that tariffs are not a viable tool for weaponizing global interdependence.
January 27, 2026: The EU–India "Mother of All Deals" Concluded. At a summit in New Delhi, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Narendra Modi conclude a massive India-European Union Free Trade Agreement connecting 2 billion people, aiming to reduce strategic reliance on the U.S. market (European Commission 2026).
February 17, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan argues that tariffs and US-specific policy uncertainty expose US to massive risks, including inflation and market volatility. Although the economic-case for dethroning the dollar is weak, political-case for weakening the dollar in slow-mo is strong. Lessons from emerging markets, whose own populism ended with high inflation, are clear: They embarked on a similar path with the US before, starting with protectionism, blaming globalization for domestic problems stemming from misguided economic policies.
February 20, 2026: U.S. Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs. In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, the Supreme Court rules 6-3 that the executive branch overreached its emergency authority, striking down the Liberation Day tariffs and initiating billions in business refunds (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump 2026).
February 21, 2026: Post-Ruling 15% Replacement Tariffs. Days after the Supreme Court decision striking down the IEEPA tariffs, the administration implements 15% replacement tariffs under alternative authorities, again touching roughly $2.5 trillion of imports (TIRADE v1.0, 2026).
March 27, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. New GLL research, summarized by our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in a recent PS article, shows how global interdependence also provides resilience thanks to multi-layer networks in trade, production, finance and spatial networks.
April 18, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in The New York Times. Our Research Director Muhammed Yildirim's research on supply chain complexity was featured in New York Times article on Iran's exports.
April 18, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in the Financial Times. Our Research Director Muhammed Yildirim's research on supply chain complexity was featured in Financial Times article on China Shock 2.0.
May 14, 2026: The U.S.-China Beijing Accord. A high-stakes bilateral summit between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping establishes a permanent, co-managed U.S.-China Board of Trade and secures $17 billion in annual Chinese agricultural purchase commitments through 2028 (White House 2026).
May 29, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan writes about the difficult new age of central banking under supply shocks. As the bond markets are telling us recently: 1) Inflation is no longer a discrete problem to be solved at the national level; it is global in nature, reflecting frequent supply shocks in an economically fragmented world. 2) Fiscal stimulus in the face of today’s supply shocks is the worst possible response, and one that monetary policy alone cannot offset. 3) Central-bank independence is less costly to defend when it is not yet under threat, and more expensive to rebuild after it has been lost.
June 1, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in IMF F&D Magazine. IMF F&D magazine features our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's work on global linkages.
June 1, 2026: Global Forced Labor Section 301 Tariffs. Following the conclusion of its global trade investigation, the USTR shifts away from broad emergency duties, proposing targeted 10% to 12.5% tariffs against 60 economies failing to enforce prohibitions on forced labor (Office of the United States Trade Representative 2026).
June 22, 2026: UK-Mexico CPTPP Activation. Mexico completes its domestic ratification of the UK's CPTPP entry, instantly activating preferential tariff treatment and rules of origin for automotive, aerospace, and food exports between London and Mexico City (UK Department for Business and Trade 2026; Mexico Business News 2026).
July 1, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Project Syndicate. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argues that viewing the recent debate on global financial fragmentation from the historical lens of the late economist Robert Mundell's dream of a single world money teaches us important lessons. What did we learn from the euro's real-world experience over the past quarter-century?
July 8, 2026: New NBER Working Paper. Are tariffs appreciationary or depreciationary?
July 30, 2026: Prof. Kalemli-Özcan in Bloomberg TV. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's interview at Bloomberg TV underlines the difficulties of central banking in a fragmented world prone to simultaneous and frequent supply and demand shocks.
July 31, 2026: Coordinated U.S.-Japan currency intervention. U.S. Treasury buys yen using euros
August 13, 2026: Section 232 Tariffs on Polysilicon and Drones. Two new Section 232 actions in one week: a 15% tariff on polysilicon and its derivatives (Proclamation 11052, August 6) and tariffs of up to 100% on drones and their components, with 15% for allied partners and 10% for the UK (Proclamation 11055, August 13) (TiRADE v1.1, 2026).
August 18, 2026: Canada Tariffs Paused for Deal Talks. Hours before 50% Section 338 duties on Canadian cars, alcohol, and dairy were due to take effect, the President suspends them for three days, announcing a deal "subject to the finalization of documents" (Proclamation 11056) (TiRADE v1.1, 2026).
August 19, 2026: Treasury Twist. U.S. Treasury buybacks long-dated bonds
August 21, 2026: TiRADE Dataset Released. The lab publishes TiRADE, an open dataset of every numeric tariff rate the President has threatened, announced, or implemented — 568 rate statements across 487 source records at release, and growing as new events are curated.
August 24, 2026: 50% Tariff on Canadian Autos and Steel Announced. On Truth Social, the President announces that tariffs on all Canadian cars, trucks, automotive parts, and steel will rise to 50% on January 1, 2027 — "Build in the U.S. and there are ZERO TARIFFS" (TiRADE v1.1, 2026).