GLL PhD student affiliate Can Soylu presented "Global Networks, Monetary Policy and Trade" to NBER's Monetary Economics Program Meeting (Fall 2025). This work, coauthored with Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan and Muhammed A. Yıldırım, develops a New Keynesian Open Economy framework with input-output linkages to study the macroeconomic impact of tariffs and finds that network linkages can make inflation more persistent and output losses larger in response to trade distortions. After Soylu's presentation, Saroj Bhattarai (University of Texas at Austin) discussed the paper and Soylu answered questions from participants.

Congratulations to Brown University Professor Emeritus Peter Howitt on receiving the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics, alongside his co-author Philippe Aghion and economic historian Joel Mokyr, for contributions to the field of economic growth.

In an interview with Brown University leaders, Prof. Howitt sees many links between openness, trade, and growth. He says the main channel though is the size of the market. If a global trade war increases tariffs and the barriers to trade, this shrinks the size of the potential market for innovators and blunts the incentive to innovate.

Prof. Howitt's co-laureate Philippe Aghion, in an interview with the New York Times after the announcement, also said he sees dark clouds ahead. Some of his work shows international trade can transfer technology across the globe, increasing innovation—an engine of economic growth—in those markets. During the interview he warned 'Trade barriers and deglobalization make markets more fragmented and reduce opportunities to exchange ideas.' He says openness is a driver of growth through creative destruction!

We invite applications for a one-year, full-time Pre-Doctoral Research Associate position in international economics, finance, and trade. Directed by Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, the Lab offers a uniquely focused, data-intensive environment that goes beyond comparable programs. Pre-docs work directly with several faculty on frontier projects—global production, trade and finance networks, dollar dominance, policy spillovers, capital misallocation, geopolitics and international economic linkages, and green-transition finance—using state-of-the-art micro-linked global datasets housed in our dedicated Data Center.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration's planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In an FT interview, our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration's on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan explains in an FT op-ed.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's Bloomberg TV interview highlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's interview at the 2025 Jackson Hole Conference focuses on the impact of tariffs on inflation. GLL's research shows that whether there is a one-time price jump versus persistent inflation depends on FED's response. She also mentions the importance of lack of retaliation.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's PS column this month argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan's interview with Newsweek on how to think the macroeconomy in a disaggregated manner not only as poor and rich households but also small and large firms and related risks from such K-Shaped economy.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan joins several social scientists for 2026 predictions of the Project Syndicate. She argues that, in the year ahead and beyond, globalization is set to become more fragmented, more complex, and more unequal. Supply chains will grow longer and riskier, while the technological arms race between the US and China could destabilize the global economic system. Paradoxically, dollar dominance may coexist with a weakening dollar. This shift is unfolding in an increasingly zero-sum geopolitical environment shaped by global and regional rivalries. Social welfare is set to decline worldwide, even as an AI-driven productivity surge benefits a narrow set of firms, sectors, and countries. Multilateral institutions will be more necessary than ever, but politics and policymaking will continue to drift away from cooperative economic frameworks.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan joins Anne Krueger, Mohamed El-Erian, and Gabriel Chodorow-Reich on the importance of FED independence for domestic and global macro and financial stability.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Özcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation rolls out at a slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation later, where unemployment can be observed before.