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Nobel Prize goes to Brown-Econ!
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Congratulations to Brown University Professor Emeritus Peter Howitt on receiving the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics, alongside his co-author Philippe Aghion and economic historian Joel Mokyr, for contributions to the field of economic growth.

In an interview with Brown University leaders, Prof. Howitt sees many links between openness, trade, and growth. He says the main channel though is the size of the market. If a global trade war increases tariffs and the barriers to trade, this shrinks the size of the potential market for innovators and blunts the incentive to innovate.

Prof. Howitt's co-laureate Philippe Aghion, in an interview with the New York Times after the announcement, also said he sees dark clouds ahead. Some of his work shows international trade can transfer technology across the globe, increasing innovation—an engine of economic growth—in those markets. During the interview he warned 'Trade barriers and deglobalization make markets more fragmented and reduce opportunities to exchange ideas.' He says openness is a driver of growth through creative destruction!

GLL has several projects in progress on these critical links between innovating firms, openness to trade and capital flows that can inform evidence-based policymaking for global growth and welfare. Stay tuned!

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.
Financial Investors Can't Profit From Complacency Forever
10/10/2025

Professor Kalemli-Özcan argues that financial market complacency in the face of U.S. policy uncertainty is a profitable strategy.

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.
As US edges closer to stagflation, economists blame Trump policies
9/13/2025

Our director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan gave an interview to Guardian on GLL tariff project that shows the potential stagflationary impact of tariffs on the US economy and also on other countries. She argues that it is important to have theory that meets data since if stagflation is happening, but at a very slow pace, because firms are waiting to pass through the cost of tariffs, then data will not pick it up right away. GLL's work explains how firms, seeing the demand increase, can decide to pass through their higher tariff-induced costs on to consumers, leading to inflation.

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.
Trump's Tariff Victory is Lack of Retaliation by Trade Partners
9/2/2025

Brown University's Director of Global Linkages Lab says impact of tariffs as one-time price boost or persistent driver of higher inflation to depend on fed vigilance.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.
Why tariffs can be stagflationary?
8/22/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's recent interview with Bloomberg during the Jackson Hole meetings (the link below from the 25th minute onwards) explains why tariffs constitute a stagflationary shock for the US, if they end up staying on for many countries and sectors in excess of 10 percent. The interview is based on the work done by GLL members Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed Yildirim.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
9/3/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan's this month's PS column explains how populist leaders' push for low interest rates meant to cloak the destructive impact of their misguided economic policies such as tariffs.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.
Project Syndicate: She Writes
6/12/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan is featured in the 'SheWrites' newsletter of Project Syndicate.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.
Asian Stocks Gain as Fed Calms Tariff Nerves
3/20/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan' Bloomberg TV interview higlights the damaging impact of large tariffs on the U.S. economy even before the ''Liberation Day'' tariffs unveiled on April 2nd. Her key point centers on the supply shock created by large tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy.

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.
How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Consumers
4/1/2025

On her April 1st interview with Time Magazine, GLL Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan argued that the Liberation Day tariffs, if end up being large, can start a global trade war, hurting American consumers and businesses at the end the most.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
4/2/2025

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? These are key questions given increased US policy uncertainty. Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcn explains in an FT op-ed.

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.
Could Trump's Tariffs Lead to a Recession? What Experts Say
4/1/2025

Our Director Prof. Kalemli-Ozcan and several other economists shared their views on the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy recession risk in a recent Newsweek interview.

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.
When inflation and recession gang up on the economy
03/11/2025

The whiplash from the Donald Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy is leading to a lot of uncertainty, argues our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, affecting both wall street and main street.

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.
FT Interview on Costs of Large Tariffs
11/06/2024

In an FT interview, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argued that U.S. unemployment could rise as businesses make cuts in the face of higher costs borne from tariffs and higher wages resulting from changes in immigration policy.

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
FT Interview on Trump’s Economic Policies Cost to Growth
1/1/2025

In an interview with the FT, our Director Prof. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan explained the potential stagflationary impact of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.
A global economist’s take on tariffs: ‘American consumers will get hurt’
2/3/2025

In a Q&A, our Director Professor Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan discussed how the new presidential administration’s planned tariffs could potentially impact the U.S. economy.

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.
Economic Report of the President
1/10/2025

Three of our GLL projects have been cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. The papers make the following points: the key drivers of pandemic era inflation is robust demand coinciding with negative supply shocks; global capital flows and global technology ownership is linked; foreign direct investment needs financial markets to be beneficial for growth.

Recent Research Highlights

View All Research

April 2025
How disruptive is Trump's global trade war?
We develop a new framework to study how trade policy and central bank actions interact in a world connected through trade and finance. The model captures how tariffs and other trade barriers affect inflation, employment, output, and the exchange rate—particularly when countries are linked through complex input–output networks. Our findings show that tariffs operate as both supply and demand shocks, generating broad ripple effects across the global economy. The magnitude and direction of these effects depend critically on how central banks respond. Using the model, we replicate key features of the U.S. experience during the 2018 tariff hikes, including slower growth, rising inflation, and a stronger U.S. dollar. We apply our framework to "Liberation Day" tariffs as well. Importantly, we also find that even tariff threats—announcements that are later reversed—can negatively affect the economy.
Featured in the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Research DigestFeatured on the NBER homepage
Read MoreNBERCEPR
March 2025
Global Vaccinations: The least cost-highest return solution to economic contractions during the pandemic.
We developed a global economic model to understand how disruptions in one part of the world—such as low vaccination rates in emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic—can affect advanced economies. When developing countries were forced to impose lockdowns due to uncontrolled infections, the global economy experienced ripple effects: shortages of critical inputs, higher import prices, and weaker external demand for exports from advanced economies. Our model quantifies the economic costs of these disruptions for wealthier countries and shows that the magnitude of the impact depends heavily on how interconnected industries are through global supply chains. The key insight is clear: investing in vaccine access for lower-income countries is not just a humanitarian imperative—it is also a sound economic strategy for advanced economies seeking to safeguard their own growth and stability.
Conditionally accepted RESTUDFull list of media coverage
https://www.ft.com/content/53c668bc-1066-4d8c-8c8d-5d29ba34a06e?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content
https://www.ft.com/content/a14399fc-49c0-4e29-8354-54f9a0b9a895?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/business/coronavirus-vaccines-global-economy.html?referringSource=articleShare
https://www.wsj.com/articles/faltering-covid-19-vaccine-drive-in-developing-world-risks-prolonging-pandemic-11613557801
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25/hoarding-covid-vaccines-could-cost-wealthy-countries-45tn
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p095609x
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-05/the-9-2-trillion-price-tag-for-failing-to-vaccinate-the-world
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-rich-countries-should-subsidize-vaccination-around-the-world
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/02/the-4-trillion-economic-cost-of-not-vaccinating-the-entire-world/
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/02/13/1018259/why-a-failure-to-vaccinate-the-world-will-put-us-all-at-risk
https://theconversation.com/the-4-trillion-economic-cost-of-not-vaccinating-the-entire-world-154786
https://storypartnersdc.com/economic-recovery-dependent-on-vaccinating-the-world/
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February 2025
What are the drivers of 2021 Inflation?
We built a global economic model to understand what caused inflation during and after the pandemic. It shows that both country-specific and worldwide shocks—like supply disruptions and shifts in demand—spread through global trade and production networks. Even if labor shortages happened unevenly, they pushed up costs across many sectors, leading to broad-based inflation. Countries with flexible exchange rates were better at handling these shocks, limiting inflation spillovers. Overall, it was the mix of sector-specific supply problems and global demand surges that best explains why inflation rose in so many places at once.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-24/fed-to-inflict-more-pain-on-economy-as-it-readies-big-rate-hike?srnd=premium&sref=d16KMguM
https://www.ft.com/content/da283616-c30b-4274-9278-4f82ef562243
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/business/inflation-demand-prices-us.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ny-fed-ties-most-of-inflation-surge-to-supply-problems-11661364051#:~:text=A%20notable%20amount%20of%20the,Bank%20of%20New%20York%20said
https://www.marketplace.org/2022/08/25/what-was-the-main-driver-of-inflation-from-2019-21/
Read MoreNBERCEPRPDFSlides
April 2024
How do FED hikes transmit to the rest of the world?
Unlike in the past, the recent U.S. interest rate hikes in 2022–2023 haven’t caused a financial crisis in emerging markets. Historically, these countries were hit hard when the Federal Reserve raised rates, as investors pulled out and borrowing costs soared. But this time is different. Emerging markets have improved their monetary policies and reduced their reliance on U.S. dollar debt, making them more resilient. As a result, there’s been less capital flight and smaller increases in risk premiums than in previous episodes. These results imply that the way FED hikes transmit to the rest of the world is through higher risk premiums and countries can reduce their own premia with increased monetary policy credibility.
Published in AEA PP
https://www.ft.com/content/3c321f16-91e2-4d86-90b2-22b16352428d
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July 2022
Can trade increase when supply chains are blocked? If so what are the implications for inflation and output?
We study why inflation rose in the Euro Area during the COVID-19 pandemic and how it compared to what happened in the U.S. between 2020 and 2021. We find that the shift in consumer spending—from services to goods—played a big role in driving inflation, especially because global supply chains amplified the effects. Labor shortages in specific sectors made the problem worse, leading to higher inflation than if the economy had only faced changes in demand. Interestingly, global supply disruptions and foreign shocks mattered more for inflation in Europe than domestic spending did. Also, even though demand for goods was strong, trade didn’t respond as much as it did during the 2008–09 crisis, partly due to supply bottlenecks. The overall takeaway is that inflation would have been much lower without these supply-side issues, even if governments had tried to stimulate demand.
ECB Forum on Central Banking 2022
https://www.ft.com/content/da283616-c30b-4274-9278-4f82ef562243
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/business/inflation-demand-prices-us.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ny-fed-ties-most-of-inflation-surge-to-supply-problems-11661364051#:~:text=A%20notable%20amount%20of%20the,Bank%20of%20New%20York%20said
https://www.marketplace.org/2022/08/25/what-was-the-main-driver-of-inflation-from-2019-21/
Read MorePDFSlidesVox-EU Summary

Global Linkages Lab

The Global Linkages Lab hosts a diverse range of raw and derived datasets on global trade and financial linkages, at a granular level, enabling to ignite path breaking research on issues such as global networks, tariffs and sanctions, trade and inflation, domestic and global productivity, misallocation of global capital, financing of green transition, dominance of the dollar, the global impact of U.S. fiscal, monetary and trade policies, geopolitics led global fragmentation and disengagement amidst significant global challenges. One of our primary goals is to provide a valuable public service, by sharing our data and hosting seminars and large conferences.

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